Conclusions from the 14th TIME Economic Forum
On digitalization, the Green Deal and the effects of ignorance

The next, 14th TIME Economic Forum, organized by the largest and most active ICT organizations, was an opportunity to present the main barriers blocking the use of the potential of digital innovations to increase the competitiveness of the Polish economy. The main topic was the green digital transformation as the basis of the circular network economy (S-GOZ). During the Forum, a whole range of concepts and digital solutions were presented that increase the innovation and competitiveness of the economy in peacetime and its resistance to cyber attacks using IT weapons, energy blackmail and armed conflicts.

KIGEiT has been warning since 2012 that energy based on fossil fuels is dying out and that it reduces the security and resilience of the economy to threats. We informed that after 2020, the costs of generating electricity from renewable energy sources will be lower than from coal. In 2019, the costs of producing energy from renewable energy sources became competitive with old technologies, which heralded an energy conflict. We announced that advanced IT weapons are and will be used for cyberattacks on power grids, and we suggested that countries dependent on fossil fuels will increasingly counteract the energy transformation, which has become a fact. All elements of S-GOZ become the target of a cyber attack. The program of this year's Forum was entirely devoted to the issues of improving energy, digital, industrial and network security. The conference topics included problems whose solution will increase the resistance of the Polish economy to electronic and information warfare and improve its functioning.

On the short-sightedness of economic policy

In the program presentation, we pointed out that the weakness of Polish economic policy is its short-sightedness. The organizers intended the presentation to be a warning against the upcoming conflict, but it became its justification. Combining the facts and arguments discussed during the presentation and discussion, particular attention is drawn to the conclusion that the success of the 3x20 package and the adoption of the Green Deal strategy for global energy companies means a rapid and constant decline in the sales of fossil fuels. Remembering that most wars are fought over raw materials and markets, we can assume that the Russian energy oligarchy treated the Green Deal as an attack on its interests. Russia's war with Ukraine has been going on for years. The escalation of the conflict may reflect the level of fear of the Kremlin authorities about the political consequences of losing markets for energy raw materials. The main reasons for the current war were included by the representatives of enterprises in a document published before the conference on the websites of KIG[1] and KIGEiT[2].

Assumptions of the energy market reform

During the Forum, the basic assumptions of the energy market reform prepared for the Ministry of Climate and Environment (2021) and developed by the KIGEiT expert team were presented. This is a package of recommendations based on a detailed analysis of systemic weaknesses in energy policy of the past 30 years. The reform project was made with public money and should be widely available. Even though more than 3 months have passed since the date of receipt, it is still unpublished. The report indicates the reasons for the increase in energy costs, contains substantive criticism of PEP 2040 and proposes a digital reform of the energy sector. It consists of a number of activities accelerating investments in distributed energy, and thus accelerated development of municipal and district Poland.

Particularly great emphasis was placed on the implementation of Directive 2019/944, which allows for public ownership of low and medium voltage networks, using the concept of Citizen Energy Communities (OSE). This is one of the systemic solutions that activates the financial resources, competences and entrepreneurship of local communities. The concept of a safe legal environment encouraging private and prosumer investments in local networks is supported by dozens of detailed solutions. The proposal to launch a dynamic tariff system as a digital mechanism rationalizing the choice of location, technology and size of each investment is innovative. The demands for digitization and decentralization of finance and economic transactions based on standardized blockchain technology are consistent with the concept of creating energy accounts. This is a practical application of digital decentralization of finance and settlements, dedicated to entities and citizens active within OSE. The need for synchronous development of all layers and types of networks based on data and information from intelligent metering of power grids and real-time data transmission was justified. This is the technological and information basis for the automation of distributed energy networks and industrial networks of S-GOZ.

The role of telecommunications, AI, IoT and financial decentralization in building a network economy

In the discussion on the development of the 5G network and PPDR communications in Poland, it was pointed out that the acceleration of investments should be based on the creation of conditions for their profitability resulting from the simultaneous use for the construction of distributed energy, the S-GOZ industry, digital decentralization of finance and universal services, and the development of e-systems. - health, education and continuing education. The presentation on the security of critical infrastructure indicated the need to create conditions motivating cooperation and shared use of resources through synergy mechanisms and network dispersion. This requires coherence of ad hoc actions with the concept of long-term development. This also applies to planning physical architecture, software and security systems. For this reason, several presentations were devoted to the need to base the digitization of networks and plants on a standardized operating system for industrial IoT (IIoT). This system will reduce costs and increase the security of industrial networks necessary to launch the synergy of local, industrial and network energy. Without such a system, one cannot seriously consider the functioning of S-GOZ.

The development of digital and energy technologies has reached a level of maturity that guarantees lower energy costs from renewable energy sources and SMRs (small nuclear reactors) than from fossil fuels and large nuclear power plants. The digital system shaping market energy prices on wholesale and retail markets will continuously optimize the local energy mix. The combination of the green hydrogen and electricity markets will allow for the optimization of investments in a balancing system based on demand management services, i.e. dynamic control of electricity receivers. Electrification of S-GOZ means a growing capacity of energy storage facilities (e.g. in cars), an increase in the power of factory and home uninterruptible power supply systems and digitally controllable electricity receivers with high demand flexibility (e.g. heat pumps, refrigerators, etc.). Assuming that within 20 years, up to 90% of the installed power of receivers can be controllable, it is possible to quickly abandon the maintenance of power sources using fossil fuels, and thus completely abandon the import of these raw materials for energy purposes. The development of smart power grid stabilization systems will increase the efficiency of investments in Industry 4.0, accelerate investments in industrial-class data transmission networks (5G, 6G, ...), electrification of transport and production technologies, and the development of digital services based on the mass implementation of artificial intelligence modules. The development of AI, driven by economic mechanisms, will trigger a chain development of digital innovations in industry and services, which will completely change the culture of life and the structure of consumption.

New Financial Order and the application of the Polish payment system in humanitarian aid

Green digital transformation is also a challenge for the broadly understood financial sector. The New Financial Order is, on the one hand, an important and urgent obligation for banks and other financial institutions which, thanks to the so-called ESG, i.e. taking into account three values ​​in their business activities: environment, social responsibility and corporate governance. governance) will be forced to act for sustainable development, and therefore also to significantly reduce their own carbon footprint. This means making many of the required changes to their own operations, including: will soon result in the elimination of some of the technologies used or their modernization or implementation of new ones based on green energy. On the other hand, the financial sector, led by banks, will be responsible for distributing public money, including EU money, and obtaining other private funds for financing projects in the field of green digital transformation in the economy and social life. The related processes, e.g. risk assessment, modification of existing and creation of new sectoral regulations and supervision over the spending and settlement of funds, are issues that need to be actually implemented as soon as possible. Unfortunately, in comparison to such practices of financial institutions already observed in Western European countries, in Poland such companies and institutions seem to be too little prepared in all respects - strategic thinking and modification of their business mission, human resources, technology and finances. This situation requires a change as soon as possible, i.e. integrated actions, both on the part of state authorities such as the government, the Ministry of Finance or the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, but above all on the part of individual banks and other financial institutions and their industry representatives.

During this year's TIME Economic Forum, in the part regarding the world of green finance, we discussed the problems of developing open banking - with the participation of the European Commission - and central bank digital currencies (CBDC), green technologies in banking and financing the implementation of the goals of the Green Deal. The demands submitted, whether from the business world or the scientific community, should be taken into account as soon as possible by national and EU politicians, as well as by institutions and companies forming the financial sector.

In the situation of the war in Ukraine and the influx of many refugees to Poland, during this year's Forum, recommended solutions were urgently submitted and initially presented for the transfer of foreign aid to refugees in the form of 'cash transfers' through the Polish banking system, which will provide refugees with access to the necessary funds. financial. We appeal for relevant institutions in Poland to take action to implement IT and financial systems supporting refugees from Ukraine.

About the ignorance and conflict of interests of the emerging green S-GOZ system and sector oligopolies

The presented development path of S-GOZ serves to eliminate energy poverty and digital exclusion. This requires increasing the level of common technical knowledge about the possibilities of energy and digital automation at home and in the workplace, as well as universal access to the necessary data and information. In this way, citizens' resources can be engaged in investments: in digitalization, SI modules, energy devices and S-GO enterprises. This is a way to popularize entrepreneurship based on local cooperation. New factors will be created that will simultaneously increase the competitiveness of the economy and its resistance to crises and conflicts.

The media attacks us with images of war. We see its victims - Ukrainian citizens and the aggressor - the Russian army. Switching to the speeches of some politicians, we learn that as a result of the war in Ukraine, we must suspend our climate policy, return to coal and look for new sources of gas and oil supplies. It is surprising how many Polish and European politicians have proposals consistent with the goals and expectations of the Russian oligarchy. It turns out that even though they have just faced the consequences of their short-sightedness, they are still trying to solve the problem without any basic reflection on the causes of its creation. Apparently they didn't hear Einstein declare that if he had an hour to save the world, he would spend fifty-five minutes defining the problem and only five minutes finding the solution. He also emphasized that we cannot solve the problem using the way of thinking that contributed to its creation.

It is a war of interests between the capital groups of the linear economy and the growing circular network economy.

Unfortunately, these are not manifestations of deficiencies in basic knowledge on how to solve problems, but an illustration of the sharpness of the conflict of interests of the emerging green S-GOZ system and sector oligopolies, which are a relic of the ending system of the industrial era. People dying on both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian war are essentially victims of another war. It is a war of interests between the capital groups of the linear economy and the growing circular network economy. Its victims also include miners and employees of energy companies, who have been blocked from developing their careers and working in cleaner places of work and residence. It also results in the preservation of energy and economic poverty resulting from digital exclusion and disinformation regarding the current economic and technological reality. As many as 8 out of 10 adult Poles have experienced disinformation, and the most susceptible to fake news are young people who trust social media and are unable to distinguish on their own what is true and what is false - according to the report "Disinformation through the eyes of Poles". Disinformation concerns not only the alleged harmfulness of the 5G network and EMF, green transformation, photovoltaic panels, but also vaccines and, most recently, the war in Ukraine. The purpose of disinformation in Poland is to delay the development of our country and to divide society. This conflict is a source of growing social tensions within countries and in international relations. "Civil" conflicts are most severe in countries where the new and old economy communities are more or less equal. The brutalization of political struggle destroys social cohesion and reduces development capabilities, of which Poland is a reference example.

The hopes that the war is caused by Putin's "madness" and that Russia will be alone in this war are unfounded. This is a conflict of interests between democratic communities with a pro-development culture and conservative communities which, feeling threatened by the consequences of accelerated development, accept authoritarian rule. Continuing the armed struggle makes no sense because this war cannot be resolved as a result of a military victory of one of the sides. The economic war will be decisive. It may last longer or shorter, but its final outcome is predetermined, just as the final outcome of the Civil War was predetermined.

About the green transformation and economic war

FG TIME participants mostly supported the proposal to accelerate the green transformation and digitization of the Polish economy[3]. They consider it a good way to increase the resilience of enterprises to the upcoming economic war (with a non-zero threat of armed conflict) and the most economically effective way to weaken the aggressor. The proposed energy reform, the demand to intensify network investments, cybersecurity, and the demand to disperse the network's production potential are just some of the elements of the defense strategy based on running forward. The choice of this path is a result of the effectiveness of shock therapy that we experienced at the turn of the 1990s. Comparing its effectiveness with the strategy of the "evolutionary" revolution adopted by Ukraine in the 1990s strengthens our belief in the accuracy of the recommendations and reforms prepared.

Achieving the goals of economic war requires sacrifices and the same consolidation of the entire society around its goals as striving for victory in an armed conflict.

It seems that the winners of the war will be those societies that treat the construction of S-GOZ as a condition for winning it. If they manage to become independent from the import of fossil fuels, they will ensure long-term peace. Achieving the goals of economic war requires sacrifices and the same consolidation of the entire society around its goals as striving for victory in an armed conflict.

We hope that the conclusions drawn during the discussions and panels during the 14th edition of the TIME Economic Forum will reach politicians, from whom we expect to adopt a long-term action strategy as soon as possible. We propose concluding a political pact across divisions, necessary to meet the challenge of green digital transformation.

On behalf of the organizers of the 14th TIME Economic Forum:

Organizer: National Chamber of Commerce for Electronics and Telecommunications.

Co-organizers: Digital Poland Foundation; Polish Promotional Emblem Foundation "Teraz Polska"; Chamber of Electronic Commerce; Lewiatan Confederation; National Chamber of Ethernet Communications; German Association of the Electrical and Digital Industry – ZVEI; Polish Chamber of Information Technology and Telecommunications; Polish Chamber of Electronic Communications; Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń; ZIPSEE "Digital Poland"; The Union of Polish Banks.

A detailed report from the 14th edition of the TIME Economic Forum, which will be submitted to senators, MPs of the Republic of Poland and the European Parliament, will be prepared by the end of March 2022.

[1] https://kig.pl/kig-i-kigeit-apeluja-do-calej-polskiej-klasy-politicalej/
[2] https://kigeit.org.pl/2022/03/01/list- open-kigeit-i-kig-to-the-entire-Polish-political-class/
[3] A number of demands were also included in the appeal "It's time for a digital economy!" signed by nearly 20 institutions.